If you don’t want to know who will win the X factor, look away now!

This year has had abundance of Drama and we haven’t even started yet. Saturday’s first live show promises a great big twist. What will it be? Will it be a wildcard selection, the mentors change category or will they add a new category so we have the Over 28s, the Groups, the boys, the girls and the overstayed their visa’s category? All will be revealed and Emperor Simon Cowell’s wallet can be assured the whole of Britain and Ireland will be sitting glued to the world’s newest gladiator colosseum where instead of blood and guts the only murdering we see is some girl from Grimsby attempt at latest Lady Gaga song.

There has been plenty of hullabaloo this week regarding Gamu Nhengu exclusion from the live show, with plenty of idiots even ringing in ofcom to complain and state that Cheryl Cole is racist. What nonsense, it’s not like Gamu was a toilet attendant or anything. The money went crazy for her to win even though she wasn’t in the live shows earlier in the week but now it looks unlikely as the X factor producers do a better job of patrolling the nations borders than immigration control.

The Contestants

Matt Cardle is the biggest dud favourite since Goliath. He is simply too short in the betting;on account that he’s softly spoken and the bettors think he’ll be a hit with the Grannies. What will happen is his little gay "close his eyes and bring his hands to his face routine" will grate quite quickly, and he can’t wear that hat forever, he’s nothing without his hat.

1 direction are second in the betting and while it could be assumed that direction would be straight down back to obscurity, it should be noted that these guys are already getting a big tween fan base on account of their boyish good looks and have an unusual trait in a boyband in that they can all sing. Cowell will be keen to stick all his resources into making this a first victory for the groups.

Rebecca Ferguson has a serious voice and just like Leona Lewis, plays the softly shy tame thing off the stage. That annoyed the hell out of me with Leona but it didn’t do her chances any harm and if Stacey last season had kept quiet, then no doubt she’d have won. Live contender

Our Mary Byrne is taking up where Jedward left off and at 25/1 may not be a bad bet for a run. She’ll trade shorter than that but it’s doubtful she’ll hang for Gold. We may be denied the right to vote, but thanks to our economy, plenty of our brethren have to seek wage in Britain again so there is a growing Irish Diaspora once again. Also rumours of a Tesco mounted campaign could add weight (no pun intended) to her cause. She is reported to be struggling with a virus so she’ll have to overcome that on the sympathy vote this week.

Of the others, Cher Lloyd blew me away in her first audition but she’ll need to show a little variety and at present looks like a one trick pony.

Katie Waissel looks like a young Madonna but sings like Maradonna. Her apparent beau, Storm Lee is top class, oh he’ll annoy everyone and there’s a certain karaoke factor about him but he’ll add plenty of cheese to your Saturday night diet. John Adeleye has talent and he could emerge as the dark horse in the race but could just as easily be gone in the first 3 weeks. Aidan Grimshaw is one of those constipated singers you just hate to watch but can really sing while Nicolo Festa is surely a joke entrant stuck in to throw a few dramas and bump up the Italian audience.

FYD and Belle Amie are the final acts and of the two FYD are simply better than 25/1 chances, that’s value on a serious well polished group and lets not forget they are the only group who were together before the auditions. They could come in under the radar and don’t forget with all the different themes, it’s going to be hard for the other two groups to gel week in week out. These guys have the work ethic of JLS, arguably the most successful act in the last few seasons and really should of won only for Alexandra Burke to pull Beyonce out of the hat.

It should be noted in the youtube clips the only acts registering big views is Cher, Gamu, Katie and Mary. I can’t see the public going with their darling Cheryl to win 3 in a row and that will come against the Girls so I’m going to go for a complete outside and pluck FYD at 25/1 to win

Verdict: FYD to win at 25/1

Prices to win X Factor

Cardle, Matt 3/1
1 Direction 7/2
Ferguson, Rebecca 4/1
Lloyd, Cher 7/1
Grimshaw, Aiden 9/1
Belle Amie 16/1
Adeleye, John 16/1
Waissel, Katie 20/1
Festa, Nicolo 20/1
Lee, Storm 25/1
FYD 25/1
Byrne, Mary 35/1

To be first eliminated

Waissel, Katie 7/2
FYD FYD 4/1
Adeleye, John 6/1
Lee, Storm 6/1
Belle Amie 13/2
Festa, Nicolo 8/1
Byrne, Mary 10/1
Lloyd, Cher 12/1
Grimshaw, Aiden 20/1
1 Direction 33/1
Ferguson, Rebecca 40/1
Cardle, Matt 50/1

Prices supplied by Betpack.com