If you don’t want to know who will win the X factor, look away now!

This year has had abundance of Drama and we haven’t even started yet. Saturday’s first live show promises a great big twist. What will it be? Will it be a wildcard selection, the mentors change category or will they add a new category so we have the Over 28s, the Groups, the boys, the girls and the overstayed their visa’s category? All will be revealed and Emperor Simon Cowell’s wallet can be assured the whole of Britain and Ireland will be sitting glued to the world’s newest gladiator colosseum where instead of blood and guts the only murdering we see is some girl from Grimsby attempt at latest Lady Gaga song.

There has been plenty of hullabaloo this week regarding Gamu Nhengu exclusion from the live show, with plenty of idiots even ringing in ofcom to complain and state that Cheryl Cole is racist. What nonsense, it’s not like Gamu was a toilet attendant or anything. The money went crazy for her to win even though she wasn’t in the live shows earlier in the week but now it looks unlikely as the X factor producers do a better job of patrolling the nations borders than immigration control.

The Contestants

Matt Cardle is the biggest dud favourite since Goliath. He is simply too short in the betting;on account that he’s softly spoken and the bettors think he’ll be a hit with the Grannies. What will happen is his little gay "close his eyes and bring his hands to his face routine" will grate quite quickly, and he can’t wear that hat forever, he’s nothing without his hat.

1 direction are second in the betting and while it could be assumed that direction would be straight down back to obscurity, it should be noted that these guys are already getting a big tween fan base on account of their boyish good looks and have an unusual trait in a boyband in that they can all sing. Cowell will be keen to stick all his resources into making this a first victory for the groups.

Rebecca Ferguson has a serious voice and just like Leona Lewis, plays the softly shy tame thing off the stage. That annoyed the hell out of me with Leona but it didn’t do her chances any harm and if Stacey last season had kept quiet, then no doubt she’d have won. Live contender

Our Mary Byrne is taking up where Jedward left off and at 25/1 may not be a bad bet for a run. She’ll trade shorter than that but it’s doubtful she’ll hang for Gold. We may be denied the right to vote, but thanks to our economy, plenty of our brethren have to seek wage in Britain again so there is a growing Irish Diaspora once again. Also rumours of a Tesco mounted campaign could add weight (no pun intended) to her cause. She is reported to be struggling with a virus so she’ll have to overcome that on the sympathy vote this week.

Of the others, Cher Lloyd blew me away in her first audition but she’ll need to show a little variety and at present looks like a one trick pony.

Katie Waissel looks like a young Madonna but sings like Maradonna. Her apparent beau, Storm Lee is top class, oh he’ll annoy everyone and there’s a certain karaoke factor about him but he’ll add plenty of cheese to your Saturday night diet. John Adeleye has talent and he could emerge as the dark horse in the race but could just as easily be gone in the first 3 weeks. Aidan Grimshaw is one of those constipated singers you just hate to watch but can really sing while Nicolo Festa is surely a joke entrant stuck in to throw a few dramas and bump up the Italian audience.

FYD and Belle Amie are the final acts and of the two FYD are simply better than 25/1 chances, that’s value on a serious well polished group and lets not forget they are the only group who were together before the auditions. They could come in under the radar and don’t forget with all the different themes, it’s going to be hard for the other two groups to gel week in week out. These guys have the work ethic of JLS, arguably the most successful act in the last few seasons and really should of won only for Alexandra Burke to pull Beyonce out of the hat.

It should be noted in the youtube clips the only acts registering big views is Cher, Gamu, Katie and Mary. I can’t see the public going with their darling Cheryl to win 3 in a row and that will come against the Girls so I’m going to go for a complete outside and pluck FYD at 25/1 to win

Verdict: FYD to win at 25/1

Prices to win X Factor

Cardle, Matt 3/1
1 Direction 7/2
Ferguson, Rebecca 4/1
Lloyd, Cher 7/1
Grimshaw, Aiden 9/1
Belle Amie 16/1
Adeleye, John 16/1
Waissel, Katie 20/1
Festa, Nicolo 20/1
Lee, Storm 25/1
FYD 25/1
Byrne, Mary 35/1

To be first eliminated

Waissel, Katie 7/2
FYD FYD 4/1
Adeleye, John 6/1
Lee, Storm 6/1
Belle Amie 13/2
Festa, Nicolo 8/1
Byrne, Mary 10/1
Lloyd, Cher 12/1
Grimshaw, Aiden 20/1
1 Direction 33/1
Ferguson, Rebecca 40/1
Cardle, Matt 50/1

Prices supplied by Betpack.com

Heineken Cup- What of the Irish no hopers?

Once again, the big two teams in Ireland start their Heineken cup campaign on the back of an inter province derby encounter. It backfired spectacularly last season with Leinster going down at home to London Irish while Munster looked sluggish and losing 31-27 away to Northampton Saints.

Munster this time faces London Irish away while Leinster has a home encounter v Racing Metro. Will lightening strike twice and we'll see another two Irish defeats. It doesn't really matter with regards outright prospects as I'm going to draw a line through both teams right now. Munster needs to bite the bullet and blood some youth into their aging forwards, as they are going backwards! Buckley and Du preez finally getting game time is a good thing but a season of transition looks on the cards.

I know writing off Munster is akin to writing off England at the World Cup( Rugby World cup that is, I always write them off for football's equivalent without a sniff of worry) but they just do not look like a side capable of winning those big matches in other people's back yard anymore. They may get luckier than last season when the ERC saw fit to award France with two semi finals and a final but even so, Munster have gone to the well once too often. A win first out at London Irish and Munster fans will be scoffing at my prediction.

Leinster too has looked a shambles so far and Joe Schmidt needs more time to turn this team around. Last weeks derby win only papers over the cracks. They have a horrid group alongside Clermont and Saracens and they hope must be that last season's Top 14 side only care about their domestic title. Even Racing Metro are one of these new breeds of super rich French clubs throwing money at players(currently top of top 14) and the likelihood is Leinster will need to top the group to progress into 1/4 finals. They must also watch out for Francois Steyn doing this.

Ulster have looked an improved side this season and the addition of Ruan Pienaar has the men up north excited they'll get into the last eight for the first time since their 1999 win. They beat Bath home and away last season and Bath again have question marks over Lewis Moody (eye injury) and Butch James is out. Biarritz last season’s runners have Imanol Harinordoquy, Dimitri Yachvili and Damien Traille as the heartbeat of this team and put them as clear favourites to emerge on top of this group and as the dark horse to win the whole thing.


Who can win?

French Clubs

They just look so strong now. The Top -14 is like the English Premier League at present buying up all the top foreign talent and off course the French national side is not too shabby at present. The danger of course is how serious each team takes it compared to the Top 14. Clermont are repeat offenders but after winning last season's domestic title, they may be more inclined to treat this competition with the respect it deserves. Toulouse and Biarritz are the top two for taking this seriously and Biarritz will be keen to get going especially after an indifferent start to their league campaign. Racing and Toulon are the new boys but I can’t help feeling their eyes are on domestic first and foremost so I will overlook them. Don’t be surprised if at least 4 of the ¼ finalist is a French side.

English Clubs

London Irish has started best and would fancy their chances if they didn’t get landed in such a hot group. Bath are the 2^nd shortest priced English team and frankly that beggars belief. Saracens too will struggle in their group unless the French play to stereotype. Leicester are in their usual place in the market but again don’t inspire me this season while Northampton can do well at home but can they win on the road? Wasps need to turn around their domestic form but a weak looking group alongside Toulouse may see them qualify as best runners up and from there anything is possible for a side that talented.

Welsh Clubs

The final this season is in the Millenium Stadium and while that normally means Munster win or minimum make the final, Ospreys and Cardiff can both take heart from winning silverware last season and finally win one for Wales. Ospreys have finally acquired the habit of winning close encounters and I expect they’ll top their group with Munster, Toulon and London Irish. Cardiff too have a very winnable group alongside Castes, Northampton and Edinburgh and the addition of Dan Parks this season could see them win those tight encounters.

Scottish Clubs

I was a big fan of the Scottish clubs as they seemed to be on the ascendancy. Glasgow especially have incredible talent and are hard to beat at Ravenhill but injuries and the loss of Dan Parks are hurting and they’ll have to treat Wasps as two winning cup final matches to make a ¼ final berth. Edinbrugh will beat one or two at home but that is all I can see.

Verdict:

Ireland nor England will produce the winning side, It is between the Welsh and French. Picking either is difficult as it’ impossible to mind read the French commitment. Biarritz’s poor start to the season makes me believe they’ll go all guns blazing to finally win this big one. Ospreys have the game finally to get it done and with Tommy Bowe ripping the heart of teams and Dan Biggar starting to resemble a highly reliable number 10 but I am probably being greedy and saying I’ll give it a swerve at such a short price and just back them to top the group of death.

Biarritz 12/1 to win

Ospreys to top pool 3 at 15/8

Outright Betting
7/2 Toulouse
7/1 Leicester Tigers
10/1 Clermont Auvergne
11/1 Ospreys
12/1 Munster
12/1 Biarritz
12/1 Cardiff Blues
14/1 Northampton Saints
14/1 Bath
16/1 Leinster
16/1 Perpignan
25/1 Londonb Wasps
25/1 Toulon
33/1 Racing Metro 92
40/1 Saracens
66/1 London Irish
66/1 Ulster
80/1 Castres
200/1 Glasgow Warriors
200/1 Edinburgh
200/1 Llanelli Scarlets
200/1 N G Dragons
2000/1 Aironi
2000/1 Treviso

Top Try Scorer

16/1 Chris Ashton
16/1 Vincent Clerc
20/1 Tommy Bowe
20/1 Tom Varndell
20/1 Napolioni Nalaga
20/1 Takudzwa Ngwenya
25/1 Leigh Halfpenny
25/1 Maxime Medard
25/1 Julien Malzieu
25/1 Shane Williams
25/1 Matt Banahan
25/1 Scott Hamilton
33/1 Tom James
33/1 Doug Howlett
33/1 Brian ODriscoll
33/1 Ollie Phillips
33/1 Alesana Tuilagi
33/1 Paul Sackey
33/1 Rudi Wulf
33/1 David Strettle
33/1 Sailosi Tagicakibau

Pool 1 Betting
6/5 Cardiff Blues
5/4 Northampton Saints
6/1 Castres
16/1 Edinburgh

Pool 2 Betting
7/4 Clermont Auvergne
15/8 Leinster
7/2 Saracens
5/1 Racing Metro 92

Pool 3 Betting
3/2 Munster
17/10 Ospreys
10/3 Toulon
9/1 London Irish

Pool 4 Betting
Evs Biarritz
11/10 Bath
7/1 Ulster
500/1 Aironi

Pool 5 Betting
4/9 Leicester Tigers
15/8 Perpignan
18/1 Llanelli Scarlets
300/1 Treviso

Pool 6 Betting
1/5 Toulouse
4/1 Wasps
28/1 Glasgow Warriors
33/1 N G Dragons