Once again, the big two teams in Ireland start their Heineken cup campaign on the back of an inter province derby encounter. It backfired spectacularly last season with Leinster going down at home to London Irish while Munster looked sluggish and losing 31-27 away to Northampton Saints.
Munster this time faces London Irish away while Leinster has a home encounter v Racing Metro. Will lightening strike twice and we'll see another two Irish defeats. It doesn't really matter with regards outright prospects as I'm going to draw a line through both teams right now. Munster needs to bite the bullet and blood some youth into their aging forwards, as they are going backwards! Buckley and Du preez finally getting game time is a good thing but a season of transition looks on the cards.
I know writing off Munster is akin to writing off England at the World Cup( Rugby World cup that is, I always write them off for football's equivalent without a sniff of worry) but they just do not look like a side capable of winning those big matches in other people's back yard anymore. They may get luckier than last season when the ERC saw fit to award France with two semi finals and a final but even so, Munster have gone to the well once too often. A win first out at London Irish and Munster fans will be scoffing at my prediction.
Leinster too has looked a shambles so far and Joe Schmidt needs more time to turn this team around. Last weeks derby win only papers over the cracks. They have a horrid group alongside Clermont and Saracens and they hope must be that last season's Top 14 side only care about their domestic title. Even Racing Metro are one of these new breeds of super rich French clubs throwing money at players(currently top of top 14) and the likelihood is Leinster will need to top the group to progress into 1/4 finals. They must also watch out for Francois Steyn doing this.
Ulster have looked an improved side this season and the addition of Ruan Pienaar has the men up north excited they'll get into the last eight for the first time since their 1999 win. They beat Bath home and away last season and Bath again have question marks over Lewis Moody (eye injury) and Butch James is out. Biarritz last season’s runners have Imanol Harinordoquy, Dimitri Yachvili and Damien Traille as the heartbeat of this team and put them as clear favourites to emerge on top of this group and as the dark horse to win the whole thing.
Who can win?
French Clubs
They just look so strong now. The Top -14 is like the English Premier League at present buying up all the top foreign talent and off course the French national side is not too shabby at present. The danger of course is how serious each team takes it compared to the Top 14. Clermont are repeat offenders but after winning last season's domestic title, they may be more inclined to treat this competition with the respect it deserves. Toulouse and Biarritz are the top two for taking this seriously and Biarritz will be keen to get going especially after an indifferent start to their league campaign. Racing and Toulon are the new boys but I can’t help feeling their eyes are on domestic first and foremost so I will overlook them. Don’t be surprised if at least 4 of the ¼ finalist is a French side.
English Clubs
London Irish has started best and would fancy their chances if they didn’t get landed in such a hot group. Bath are the 2nd shortest priced English team and frankly that beggars belief. Saracens too will struggle in their group unless the French play to stereotype. Leicester are in their usual place in the market but again don’t inspire me this season while Northampton can do well at home but can they win on the road? Wasps need to turn around their domestic form but a weak looking group alongside Toulouse may see them qualify as best runners up and from there anything is possible for a side that talented.
Welsh Clubs
The final this season is in the Millenium Stadium and while that normally means Munster win or minimum make the final, Ospreys and Cardiff can both take heart from winning silverware last season and finally win one for Wales. Ospreys have finally acquired the habit of winning close encounters and I expect they’ll top their group with Munster, Toulon and London Irish. Cardiff too have a very winnable group alongside Castes, Northampton and Edinburgh and the addition of Dan Parks this season could see them win those tight encounters.
Scottish Clubs
I was a big fan of the Scottish clubs as they seemed to be on the ascendancy. Glasgow especially have incredible talent and are hard to beat at Ravenhill but injuries and the loss of Dan Parks are hurting and they’ll have to treat Wasps as two winning cup final matches to make a ¼ final berth. Edinbrugh will beat one or two at home but that is all I can see.
Verdict:
Ireland nor England will produce the winning side, It is between the Welsh and French. Picking either is difficult as it’ impossible to mind read the French commitment. Biarritz’s poor start to the season makes me believe they’ll go all guns blazing to finally win this big one. Ospreys have the game finally to get it done and with Tommy Bowe ripping the heart of teams and Dan Biggar starting to resemble a highly reliable number 10 but I am probably being greedy and saying I’ll give it a swerve at such a short price and just back them to top the group of death.
Biarritz 12/1 to win
Ospreys to top pool 3 at 15/8
Outright Betting
7/2 Toulouse
7/1 Leicester Tigers
10/1 Clermont Auvergne
11/1 Ospreys
12/1 Munster
12/1 Biarritz
12/1 Cardiff Blues
14/1 Northampton Saints
14/1 Bath
16/1 Leinster
16/1 Perpignan
25/1 Londonb Wasps
25/1 Toulon
33/1 Racing Metro 92
40/1 Saracens
66/1 London Irish
66/1 Ulster
80/1 Castres
200/1 Glasgow Warriors
200/1 Edinburgh
200/1 Llanelli Scarlets
200/1 N G Dragons
2000/1 Aironi
2000/1 Treviso
16/1 Chris Ashton
16/1 Vincent Clerc
20/1 Tommy Bowe
20/1 Tom Varndell
20/1 Napolioni Nalaga
20/1 Takudzwa Ngwenya
25/1 Leigh Halfpenny
25/1 Maxime Medard
25/1 Julien Malzieu
25/1 Shane Williams
25/1 Matt Banahan
25/1 Scott Hamilton
33/1 Tom James
33/1 Doug Howlett
33/1 Brian ODriscoll
33/1 Ollie Phillips
33/1 Alesana Tuilagi
33/1 Paul Sackey
33/1 Rudi Wulf
33/1 David Strettle
33/1 Sailosi Tagicakibau
Pool 1 Betting
6/5 Cardiff Blues
5/4 Northampton Saints
6/1 Castres
16/1 Edinburgh
Pool 2 Betting
7/4 Clermont Auvergne
15/8 Leinster
7/2 Saracens
5/1 Racing Metro 92
Pool 3 Betting
3/2 Munster
17/10 Ospreys
10/3 Toulon
9/1 London Irish
Pool 4 Betting
Evs Biarritz
11/10 Bath
7/1 Ulster
500/1 Aironi
Pool 5 Betting
4/9 Leicester Tigers
15/8 Perpignan
18/1 Llanelli Scarlets
300/1 Treviso
Pool 6 Betting
1/5 Toulouse
4/1 Wasps
28/1 Glasgow Warriors
33/1 N G Dragons
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