Here we go again. Last season Cork brought us home the bacon but just like the other big winner last summer, Spain at the World Cup, neither side did it in much style. They ground out the results in a workmanlike fashion without lighting up the championship. They should have lost to Dublin at the semi final stage and Down had them on the ropes for much of the final and it looked like the worst percentage finalists were about to add another runners up medal. They overcame their nerves and after winning last season and getting the monkey off their back so to speak, I genuinely believed with one win under their belt they could go on and win the next 3 All Ireland's. They have followed up so far by retaining their league championship so will it be a Double Double. Read on to find out
Don't leave me?
While trying to work out the winners, we punters will always look for an angle. Mine last season was Kerry were never going to replace the exodus to Australia and Tyrone were not at the races leaving the door open for Cork to take up the mantle as the best team in the country. This season I'm concerned about the exodus of all players from mostly the western counties. We're all sick to death reading about recession this, Morgan Kelly that and after 3 years drowning in all the bad times most people just want to escape and the championship is the perfect antidote as long as the GAA keep tickets affordable. pack 7 lads into a Toyota Corolla, with packed hang sandwiches and we'll be back to the good old days.
What is troubling though and must be examined from a punting view is who is losing the most players in this recession. Young men are the biggest losers in the unemployed statistics and the GAA is amateur after all. While the core of the squad have tried to hang around for a championship attempt, it's more likely that the players on the fringes will head for pasteurs new for work. A thinner pool of players to select from does two things. Injuries leave teams bare and without the fringes pushing the top squad, competition decreases and the overall quality of the county teams drops. 200 young men left Kerry in the first half of 2010 registered to play Gaelic football. Those stats will be replicated in counties like Mayo, Donegal, Sligo, Wexford and Louth.
The only teams that are likely to avoid such problems are Cork and Dublin and perhaps a few northern sides. The GPA are currently doing a survey to determine the biggest black spots so watch out for that report and factor it into your betting this summer.
Thats enough negatives on the state of the country, time for some negatives on selected counties
Those to Avoid:
Kerry: As I stated before, badly hit by recession, golden team now gone and I'm sticking with my guns again this season and writing them off for another season.
Tyrone: If they make the final in September, every neutral would be cheering them on after what happened to poor Mickey Harte. The man has some character after his great loss and no doubt the players will run through walls for him but for now I just cannot see them getting involves to challenge. They too have a squad that hasn't replaced the golden generation with winners yet. No doubt their strong minor team will emerge in the next few seasons but I'll swerve them for now.
Galway, Mayo & Limerick. John Mulholland is based in these 3 counties but has not really seen too much county pride in their sides. In fact more were betting against the Galway side to obvious financial gain in the league. John Mulhollands are best price on all 3 teams to win the championship at 40/1, 25/1 and 100/1 respectively. For those who don't understand betting that means if you were to put €10 on any of them to win, you'd lose a tenner.
But why so negative on Galway? Our own Alan Mulholland has just led the U-21's to an All Ireland title, St Jarlaths of Tuam just reached an All Ireland College final and a new star could emerge in Tomás Flynn to add to the a panel of Meehan and Armstrong. Simple fact is their own county down;t belive in them anymore and it will take more than one more season to change that. They have relied on Padriag Joyce too long and they have shown too much mental friality in recent years mostly when stepping out of Connacht but even Roscommon and Sligo have had their number in recent seasons. It's all their for them but the money says not this year. Maybe victor against Mayo on the 26th of June against Mayo in Castlebar would raise the optimism. One Caveat there thoough is Mayo have to beat London first.
Donegal, Sligo, Meath: Donegal confidence is high after they're great season in Division2 this season. However confidence was high after their national league title in 2007 and they flopped badly. Manager McGuiness has a new instilled belief in the side and they have stopped the habit of hand passing along the 45 then losing possession but they have to go the long way to Ulster title and an All Ireland 1/4 final would be the height of their achivements.
Sligo will fancy upsetting Galway and Mayo in Connacht again but they will not get near their first all Ireland. The standard in Connacht is the worst in Ireland. Meath had a horrendous league campaign nearly getting relegated from Div 3. They won a tainted Leinster title last season and it seems to be still weighing heavily on their shoulders. Leinster will be between Kildare and Dublin.
Down: I backed them to win Ulster last season and backed them throughout the season. I love their style of football and they have men all over the park that can gain scores, they don't just rely and Coulter and Clarke. However after the highs of last season, I cannot see them going on back to back runs. A huge meeting against Armagh could see them in the back door before they have even awoken and 16/1 is just no value.
Derry: Bradley is out for the season and with a semi final against the winners of Armagh v Down, I cannot see them making July. Their league campaign has been less impressive from
seasons past and perhaps they are trying to time their run better but in the hustle and bustle of Ulster that requires plenty of luck.Those to consider:
Cork- They are the best side, have an average height of 8 foot and although they don't possess any Gooch in their forward ranks, can overrun any side in Ireland with sheer superior strength. I cannot see them outside the final again having a soft campaign in Munster and I'd expect a better season that last now 20 years barren spell is over. Winning breeds confidence and while Dublin should have beaten them twice, will Dublin show the psychological scars Cork did for Kerry or Kerry did for Tyrone?
Dublin. I backed Dublin to win the league final against Cork and had the money already spent in my head only to watch in utter disbelief at their collapse. 8 points up, their last 20 minutes reminded me of Osama Bin Laden, All at sea. Perhaps that defeat will be a blessing in disguise as it defuses the hype machine but anything less that a final appearance would be an utter failure
this season.Armagh: My dark horses this season and a tasty price.Last season they were a disgrace against Mongahan but the young blood has now been integrated into the side and the ageing stars looks to have been replaced. No side other than Tyrone or Armagh has won Ulster since 1988 despite it being the hardest province but I can see the orchard men winning this the hard way. Losing to Down would not be the end of the world especially if they get a soft back down opener and gain momentum from there. This side are completely under the radar hence the price. They look ready to finally put down a challenge in the post Joe Kernan era.
Others to mention: Kildare are still on the improvement and can reach another 1/4 final and perhaps win Leinster while Monaghan will look to win Ulster for the first time since 1988 but it looks like a year to rebuild this season.
Verdict: Cork 5/2 v Dublin final with Cork to win again
Dublin v Cork Final special with Mulhollands 11/2
Munster: Cork 4/5
Leinster: Kildare 5/1
Connacht: Galway 15/8
Ulster: Armagh 8/1
