Well Cork were lucky, of that there can be no doubt. 11 out 18 points came from the dead ball and that shows where Cork's weakness lies. They don't possess a real top class full forward poacher and if Dublin's high octane pressure play hadn't subsided in the closing stages, this Cork team would be staring into the abyss after throwing away their best chance ever to win an All Ireland
It had always been my assumption that Cork were holding something back, ready to peak on the big occasion like they did last season when destroying Donegal and Tyrone but on all known evidence neither Down nor Kildare will fear the rebels in the final.
Kildare's workrate this season has been nothing short of amazing as they have taken Kieran McGeeney's Ulster way to heart with high tempo, quick passing and smothering tactic football. They got to this stage with a gutsy win last time out against Meath but I can't get the last time these two sides met in the league out of my head when Down humped Kildare by 9 points in Newbridge. Yes the old adage of "what’s league form worth?" may come into one's head but the manner of the defeat shows that Down relish Kildare's tactics, which may force Kildare to try and change and go into the unknown.
Down had a fantastic victory against Kerry but the bookies have not taken it at face value, regarding it as a defeat of an ageing side on the way out. Down had some tragic news recently when 17 year old, Patrick Dinsmore, died while playing for his local club. Sometimes a tragedy like this can bring a community together and wouldn't it be fitting if they won it for the people of Warrenpoint.
Kildare have not won the All Ireland since 1928 and I feel they may have to wait awhile longer. The inclusion of Dermot Earley looks like a desperate gamble while it looks likely that Down's Ambrose Rogers will spring from the bench if need be . I also feel men like Marty Clarke and Benny Coulter relish finding space against a hunt packing team like Kildare, and at odds against should be the bet of the weekend.
Well bloody Jamie Spencer, Frank Spencer as he is known by many racing enthusiasts. My only real bet yesterday was Sariska and the bloody horse didn't come out of the stalls. Hopefully you backed it with a decent bookies and got your money back. I backed it with Betfair so unfortunately I lose.
Friday's action is all centered around Starspangledbanner and with good reason as the O Brien horse has looked a revaluation since crossing over from Australia. Sprinting in these parts has badly needed a top champion and this could be it. They seem to breed far superior sprinters down under and over in Hong Kong so is there any chance the home guard can defend against a foreign invasion. Equiano is an ex Spanish horse now with Barry Hills and is enjoying his best season ever. A neck defeat to Starspanglebanner over 6furlongs makes it look like a drop back to the minimum 5 furlongs will make him difficult to beat and if he gets away from the field, he will be difficult to peg back. Fleeting Spirit is another that catches the eye but 6 furlongs looks his ideal trip and the from lines suggest he wouldn't be good enough to beat the top 3 here. Kingsgate Native inflicted Equiano's only defeat at 5 furlongs this season but the loss of jockey Ryan Moore is a big loss and he was very disappointing in this race last season as favourite. Borderlescott is seeking his 3rd win in a row in this race but lets not forget only one of those was at York but he been looking at Equino's backside all season and he'll do the same here again.
Verdict: Equino to win reverse forecast with Starspanglebanners
Rainbow Peak looks like a horse punters will get stuck into in the 2:15 against some old guards in Halicarnassus,Cesare & Rio de La Plata. Cesare is now 9 and has had only one run this season winning with guts at Newmarket under Kieran Fallon. Rio de La Plata looked awful last time out and surely would be better suited to a good to firm 7 furlongs. Confront might be the pick dropping down in class having competed in some hard races this season.
Cork Fan to Dublin Fan: "We have only lost to one team since 2004 in the football championships boy and that team is the rotten Kerry, , so we are now destined for Sam, nobody lest a bunch a langers from Dublin can stop us" Dublin Fan back: "ask me tank, we have only lost once to Cork in 13 championship games and we last won the All Ireland in 1995 and no team since that has won it is left in the competition, its ours for the taking"
So that's the stats out of the way and can help encourage you more if you fancy one team over the other but stats are all ancient history and the future is not as easy to predict.
The Dubs are not so blue anymore. Victory against Tyrone and suddenly optimism is in the air around our capital. Optimism and Dublin is a dangerous concoction which has seen a right few shockers the last few seasons especially last season when beat by the Kingdom after only 5 minutes.
Just like Kerry last season, Cork have stuttered their way to this stage against Dublin without putting one big performance together. However watching their old foes collect 4 All Ireland titles in 6 years has taught Cork a valuable lesson. You need only to survive the early rounds and peak in late August and of course that fateful day in September.
Market forces dictate that the Dubs are around 13/8 but I believe Cork will show their class and overrun an average Dublin team with the minimum of fuss. Last season Kerry beat them by 17 points. Anyone fancying Cork to do the same and win by 16 points or more can get a generous 33/1.
For anyone looking for the double for this weekend and next, I can see Down beating Kildare also but for now make Cork the cornerstone of your betting weekend. They are 1.81(8/11 minus commission on betfair) and 4/6 in most betting offices. Perhaps the bet would be more advised to get on Cork outright and take the draw out of it. I can't believe they are odds against with Kerry gone and no point looking a gift horse in the mouth.
Easily the quietest of the 4 day festival and perhaps it could be argued they should of kept it to a 23 day event without the need to dilute the programme and end up with a weak card like this, but hey, that's greed for you.
Thankfully there is one top class race at 3:25, so if nothing else, watch this race as it has perhaps the best collection of fillies on display. And the equine fillies won't be too bad on the eye either. Last season's Oaks winner Sariska meets this season's winner Snow Fairy and Midday is thrown in their for good measure.
I have to admit I'm a huge fan of Midday and backed her well to win last time at Goodwood where she was absolutely fantastic to re rally on Stacelita and get home a shade comfortably. However her best trip is undoubtably 1mile 2furlongs and the extra two furlongs against top class opposition may prove too much. Sariska has beaten her three times already including once at York so I'm afraid I'd have to stick with Sariska . At 9/4 versus 5/2, I can't make a case for Midday to overturn her at those odds.
Snow fairy has looked good but she was not even that well supported in either Oaks and to be honest the 3 year old form looks awful
Verdict: Sariska
One other filly who catches the eye later in the next race is Ceilidh house 4:05. She has been pulled out of a few recent engagements and flopped badly at this seasons oaks, not handling the undulations of Epsom. She may be worth another go today at 7/1
Can Overturn win 3 big races in a row. After winning the Galway Hurdle pulling a cart, the punters will be keen to back him and I'm sure he'll go favourite over Martyr today. I can't really see him out of the top 4 if the races haven't taken their toll and these big wins happening in a sequence can happen, just remember Sergeant Cecil.
The one for me at a nice price is Godolpin'sDarley Sun. He was with Mark Johnston last season and ran away Cesarewitch. He didn't handle the Gold Cup last time out and was an unlucky enough loser in his first outing. Godolpin have now hit top form and judging by yesterday's winner Rewilding, horses that took a break are coming back strong. At 16/1 he is a great bet especially if you consider, the Lonsdale cup was the logical race choice but they have come here for the better handicap race
In the Lonsdale Cup, if I fancy Darley Sun, I have to keep with Akmal, whose from ties in strongly with Darley Sun. He won the Henry Stakes at Sandown and again didn't handle the Gold Cup trip. This will suit and ground conditions are perfect. Nothing else in the race stands out as anythnig exceptional and at 15/2 it looks a cracking bet.
In the Gimcrack, backing Temple Meads could be as nerve racking as opening those Leaving Cert results as he'll come late but I said yesterday, the best horses usually win at York and so it proved with Rip Van Winkle and Rewilding winning yesterday
Verdict 2.15 Akmal 2.50 Temple Meads 3:25 Darley Sun
At day two of the Killarney festival, The big race the 6:20 Kingdom Gold Cup looks a right cracker with Bahrain Storm, Prince Chaparral, Alpine Eagle, Deutchland and Easy Mate colliding. I'd go for Galway Hurdle second Bahrain Storm to win on his favourite ground. IN the 7:20 Chicago Grey, winner last time out in Galway will be well supported bu I'd stick with my big bet off the Galway festival Armaramak to get some compensation for his unlucky loss.
York's Ebor Festival is easily the best flat festival for seasoned punters. In August, the ground should be no worse than good to soft and the track rides very fair unlike Goodwood, where you can suffer worst traffic problems than Claregalway at peak hour on a long bank holiday weekend. Ascot too has problems with draw as does the Newmarket meeting.
York is just fair, if your beat, you're normally beaten fair and square so all we have to do is find the best horse in each race and they'll win. As the meerkat says "simples"
Dick Turpin goes back to the place he was hung for the crime of "horse theft". Yes the most famous highwayman's namesake comes to this big race with a great chance of stealing a Group One. The man in the saddle is even named Richard. It's just too romantic a scenario.
He has never won at this distance but he didn't seem to be stopping last time out in France. He went to the front early in that race and just powered away from the opposition but I'd expect a more traditional Richard Hughes ride this time, tracking Rip Van Winkle before making his attempt late. Rip Van Winkle looked back to his near best last time out only for Canford Cliffs to show his real class. Murtagh's mount put down perhaps the most serious challenge to Sea the Stars last season when he tried 10 furlongs for the only time in his career.
Byword and Twice Over locked horns at Royal Ascot and although there can be no doubting Byword won deservedly, Twice Over comes into form at this time of the season and at this track I can see him reversing those places. None of the others look good enough to get involved despite Godolphinsresurgence in form, this looks beyond Cavalryman on current form.
Verdict: Dick Turpin( with the weight allowance and top form, He was supplemented for £60,000 to get into this race. We can't see the owner mugged by his own horse Reverse forecast with Twice Over
In the Great Voltigeur, It looks between the front two Rewilding and Midas Touch(3rd and 5th in a messy Epsom Derby) I'd have slight preference for Frankie's mount on account of that run and current yard form. Rewilding was well supported in the Derby before staying on best from the pack. He hasn't been seen since which is a worry but Midas Touch looks another highly competent Coolmore middle distance horse without having any star quality.
In the first two race go for small bets on Sir Gerry(1:45) and Satin Love(2:15)
Yes, the Frenchman has been trying to guilt trip us into renewing our rip off sky packages to fund the "dream". A dream where fantastic memories are relived again and again. Frankly I haven't that many decent premier league game since Keegan was in charge of Newcastle but hey we must believe and keep paying otherwise poor lads like Curtis Davis and Kevin Kilbane will have to take a pay cut.
The league hasn't even started yet and the drama has already begun. Martin has quit, Stevie has pledged his loyalty to the reds again, which is a good thing as nobody else wanted him, Peter Crouch could be looking for a new bachelor pad and Man City are looking like possible title contenders when they can just put Craig Bellamy in the reserves for the season. Please God, let him go to Celtic on loan.
LONDON CALLING
It's going to be a season built around the 3 London clubs. Alex Ferguson hinted Spurs could challenge for the title but whether that was to play with "Arry'sEad" is another thing. Tottenham have the players to beat any side in the league, they just need to find theconsistency. They will probably fall short in the tightest season ever but there is money to be made backing them on the Season's handicap market. Betpack go +19 points at 14/1 and it just looks too big. I can see them finishing within 10 points of Chelsea this season and could make the top 3 never mind top 4 Verdict 3rd
Chelseawere the deserving winners last season and will have Drogba for the whole season but the money is not being spent, with Carvallho, Ballack, Joe Cole and possible Ashley Cole all leaving. They still have too much class to fall outside the top 4 but I can see a season built around winning that elusive Champions League and they are poor value in an open league to win Verdict 2nd
Arsenal have underachieved for too long. OK they were unlucky with injuries but if Wenger had cover up front and a decent goalkeeper, they'd of won it by now. I seriously doubt Man City would let Shay Given go to Arsenal but if they did, I'd be on Arsenal faster than aCavan man with a coupon. They could still get involved and at 7/1, its still a fun bet for the season for those looking for value so have a go that they can finally win it with a fully fit side and a committed Cesc and no Gallas Verdict 1st
Man Utd: I just can't get enthused about their chances at all. They have added the young Mexican Hernadez or Chiquitta or whatever the hell the young prince wants to call himself and he looks useful but with an ageing team going for one more year it's getting hard to tell the difference between Utd and their Masters team. Giggs, Scholes and Van De Saar still seem to possess the talent but can they really fight off all 4 challengers Verdict 4th
Man City will be fit to play the most defensive football known to mind with their 4 holding midfielders all on the field. Stephen Manchester and Craig Bellamy have been marginalised, Gareth Barry looks crap and Toure, who couldn't get into the Barcelona team is now making €220,000. The mind boggles and to be honest, I can't see them coming within an arse's roar of the title and would back Spurs to beat them on Saturday. Betpack are refunding all losing outright bets if Man City win the league so take the insurance and back with them. Verdict 5th
Liverpool: Sorry I've ran out of writing room. If your a Liverpool fan and an optimistic one at that, all I can say is God bless you. You are a bookie's wet dream. Off you go and make your annual donation. Verdict 6th
If Manchester City Win The Premier League, Betpack Will Refund All Losing Single Bets On This Market As A Free Bet. T&Cs Apply
Chelsea 13/8 Man United 9/4 Man City 5/1 Arsenal 6/1 Liverpool 12/1 Tottenham 33/1 Everton 150/1 Aston Villa 200/1 Sunderland 500/1 Newcastle 750/1 Birmingham 1000/1 Blackburn 1000/1 Fulham 1000/1 Bolton 1000/1 West Ham 1500/1 Stoke 2500/1 Wigan 2500/1 Wolves 2500/1 West Brom 5000/1 Blackpool 10000/1
Verdict: back Spurs +19 points on handicap market at 14/1
Back Chelsea & Arsenal reverse forecast(1st and 2nd either way) at 7/1
In the other leagues around the world: La Liga Can Jose stop Barcelona? 11/10 for Real Madrid to reclaim top spot. They were excellent last season apart from the El Clásico matches and scored a clossal points tally. Jose has added only a backline as he already has the class in up front and in midfield. If he adds Sneijder back before the start of the season, the 11/10 would start to look even better.
Seria A Can Rafa balls up Inter's 6 in a row? Yes he can. I wouldn't touch them with a dud fiver under Benitez. The only thing is it's hard to find reasons why Roma or Ac Milan can catch them. Full market
SPL Can Lennon win Celtic the title? at 8/11 I hope so and I hope you took the early 6/5 I put up back in May. Rangers couldn't afford a can of Irn Bru right now and although Celtic have a lot of very average players, Rangers may struggle to field 11 players at the rate they are selling and releasing players. It has to be be Celtic but I'm more biased than a doting mum. They may be rubbish, but they're my rubbish.
Verdict: Celtic to win SPL and Real Madrid to win La Liga in double at 8/11 and 11/10 €10 double pays 36.27
Tiger Woods has as many friends as Ivor Calley this week as his price hits 16/1 pre tournament and few takers at that price. Do the others even fear him now?The only danger he poses is to the spectators as he hit two last week, drawing blood out of one of them. That's with the ball, not the club, only Elin swings clubs at people.
So who can win this? The last 7 winners of Majors have been priced 250/1, 80/1, 14/1, 200/1, 175/1, 225/1, 140/1 so grab a dart. Don't hold your breath for a a triple figure price winner but once we go in running, keep your noggin on and you can avail of some smashing prices on untrendy outsiders. McDowell was available at 25/1 after an excellent first round at the US Open and at the British Open Oosthuizen was still available at 10/1 on Friday afternoon even with a few shots clear and others going backwards fast on a wet and windy day.
I avoided tipping Phil Mickelson last week waiting to back him here however my confidence has been dented with a horror final round last week when the number one spot was in sight but I guess that's Phil. It's all duck or no dinner with him and just look at him, he's eaten plenty of duck dinners. He finished two shots off victory the last time the event was held at Whistling Straits. He hasn't shone in the last few months but his 2005 USPGA win was on the back of some horror form and he is a worthy favourite. 14/1
Of the outsiders to consider, there are three that grab my attention. G-Mac has drank plenty of bubbly since his win in the US Open and he's easy to dismiss but with a links course modeled on his home course of Portrush and a nice tasty price, he has to be worth a flutter at those prices at 55/1
Germany's Martin Kaymer has played well without threatening to win the last two majors(8th and 6th) and is I can see him getting in the shakedown for your six places at 45/1.
South African Charl Schwatrzel was all smiles and one of the first to congratulate Louis Oosthuizen on his Open victory but surely going through his head "If this useless eegit can win one, then my turn must be next". Rory got inspiration from Graeme and would of won only for that horror Friday and I Can see Charl getting in the shakedown at 110/1
Verdict: Mickelson 14/1 main bet McDowell 55/1-Kaymer 45/1-Schwatrzel 110/10 outsiders
The Championship kicks off tonight with Watford taking on Norwich in another very open Championship. I have to admit my surprise on Gordon Strachan's men being 6/1 favourites here. He has bought half of the SPL to come down south and this will be a real acid test for all those who claim Celtic and Rangers wouldn't get out of the old first division and scoff at the standards of Scottish football in general.
However I shall be doing a little jig every Saturday that jeff Sterling tells me Kris Boyd or Scott McDonald hits the net. This side looks to have the right balance and Strachan is more cannier and a much better manager than many give him credit for. They have been backed from 9/1 into 6/1 for good reason and of the last 4 seasons, an 8/1 shot or less has won it on 3 occasions.
Gordon Strachan was once asked in an interview what field he thought his team was weak in, to which he replied "That big green one out there" Something tells me, he won't have that problem at Middlesbrough. Notts Forest showed great spells last season and could threaten teh promotion places yet. Portsmouth may have survived administration but their squad is threadbare. Bristol City could be one at a big price and they'd be an excellent addition to the Premier League. Burnley lost all the magic once Owen Coyle left and QPR may have the supposed millions but no real sign of them in the transfer market. They may not be strong favourites but remember how weak Newcastle were last season before their 11 point winning margin
Verdict: Middlesborough to win Championship at 6/1 Bristol City to get promoted at 6/1
I will run through the other leagues next week but one quick mention goes Clyde in Scottish Division 3. They were relegated two seasons in a row amid financial trouble. They even had trial outs to find a new team but word is they have steadied the ship and at 5/2, not a bad one to stick into your selections for your season yankees
s a tragedy like this can bring a community together and wouldn't it be fitting if they won it for the people of Warrenpoint.
