All Ireland Football Championship 2011

Here we go again. Last season Cork brought us home the bacon but just like the other big winner last summer, Spain at the World Cup, neither side did it in much style. They ground out the results in a workmanlike fashion without lighting up the championship. They should have lost to Dublin at the semi final stage and Down had them on the ropes for much of the final and it looked like the worst percentage finalists were about to add another runners up medal. They overcame their nerves and after winning last season and getting the monkey off their back so to speak, I genuinely believed with one win under their belt they could go on and win the next 3 All Ireland's. They have followed up so far by retaining their league championship so will it be a Double Double. Read on to find out


Don't leave me?

While trying to work out the winners, we punters will always look for an angle. Mine last season was Kerry were never going to replace the exodus to Australia and Tyrone were not at the races leaving the door open for Cork to take up the mantle as the best team in the country. This season I'm concerned about the exodus of all players from mostly the western counties. We're all sick to death reading about recession this, Morgan Kelly that and after 3 years drowning in all the bad times most people just want to escape and the championship is the perfect antidote as long as the GAA keep tickets affordable. pack 7 lads into a Toyota Corolla, with packed hang sandwiches and we'll be back to the good old days.

What is troubling though and must be examined from a punting view is who is losing the most players in this recession. Young men are the biggest losers in the unemployed statistics and the GAA is amateur after all. While the core of the squad have tried to hang around for a championship attempt, it's more likely that the players on the fringes will head for pasteurs new for work. A thinner pool of players to select from does two things. Injuries leave teams bare and without the fringes pushing the top squad, competition decreases and the overall quality of the county teams drops. 200 young men left Kerry in the first half of 2010 registered to play Gaelic football. Those stats will be replicated in counties like Mayo, Donegal, Sligo, Wexford and Louth.

The only teams that are likely to avoid such problems are Cork and Dublin and perhaps a few northern sides. The GPA are currently doing a survey to determine the biggest black spots so watch out for that report and factor it into your betting this summer.

Thats enough negatives on the state of the country, time for some negatives on selected counties

Those to Avoid:

Kerry: As I stated before, badly hit by recession, golden team now gone and I'm sticking with my guns again this season and writing them off for another season.

Tyrone: If they make the final in September, every neutral would be cheering them on after what happened to poor Mickey Harte. The man has some character after his great loss and no doubt the players will run through walls for him but for now I just cannot see them getting involves to challenge. They too have a squad that hasn't replaced the golden generation with winners yet. No doubt their strong minor team will emerge in the next few seasons but I'll swerve them for now.

Galway, Mayo & Limerick. John Mulholland is based in these 3 counties but has not really seen too much county pride in their sides. In fact more were betting against the Galway side to obvious financial gain in the league. John Mulhollands are best price on all 3 teams to win the championship at 40/1, 25/1 and 100/1 respectively. For those who don't understand betting that means if you were to put €10 on any of them to win, you'd lose a tenner.

But why so negative on Galway? Our own Alan Mulholland has just led the U-21's to an All Ireland title, St Jarlaths of Tuam just reached an All Ireland College final and a new star could emerge in Tomás Flynn to add to the a panel of Meehan and Armstrong. Simple fact is their own county down;t belive in them anymore and it will take more than one more season to change that. They have relied on Padriag Joyce too long and they have shown too much mental friality in recent years mostly when stepping out of Connacht but even Roscommon and Sligo have had their number in recent seasons. It's all their for them but the money says not this year. Maybe victor against Mayo on the 26th of June against Mayo in Castlebar would raise the optimism. One Caveat there thoough is Mayo have to beat London first.

Donegal, Sligo, Meath: Donegal confidence is high after they're great season in Division2 this season. However confidence was high after their national league title in 2007 and they flopped badly. Manager McGuiness has a new instilled belief in the side and they have stopped the habit of hand passing along the 45 then losing possession but they have to go the long way to Ulster title and an All Ireland 1/4 final would be the height of their achivements.

Sligo will fancy upsetting Galway and Mayo in Connacht again but they will not get near their first all Ireland. The standard in Connacht is the worst in Ireland. Meath had a horrendous league campaign nearly getting relegated from Div 3. They won a tainted Leinster title last season and it seems to be still weighing heavily on their shoulders. Leinster will be between Kildare and Dublin.

Down: I backed them to win Ulster last season and backed them throughout the season. I love their style of football and they have men all over the park that can gain scores, they don't just rely and Coulter and Clarke. However after the highs of last season, I cannot see them going on back to back runs. A huge meeting against Armagh could see them in the back door before they have even awoken and 16/1 is just no value.

Derry: Bradley is out for the season and with a semi final against the winners of Armagh v Down, I cannot see them making July. Their league campaign has been less impressive from seasons past and perhaps they are trying to time their run better but in the hustle and bustle of Ulster that requires plenty of luck.


Those to consider:

Cork- They are the best side, have an average height of 8 foot and although they don't possess any Gooch in their forward ranks, can overrun any side in Ireland with sheer superior strength. I cannot see them outside the final again having a soft campaign in Munster and I'd expect a better season that last now 20 years barren spell is over. Winning breeds confidence and while Dublin should have beaten them twice, will Dublin show the psychological scars Cork did for Kerry or Kerry did for Tyrone?

Dublin. I backed Dublin to win the league final against Cork and had the money already spent in my head only to watch in utter disbelief at their collapse. 8 points up, their last 20 minutes reminded me of Osama Bin Laden, All at sea. Perhaps that defeat will be a blessing in disguise as it defuses the hype machine but anything less that a final appearance would be an utter failure this season.

Armagh: My dark horses this season and a tasty price.Last season they were a disgrace against Mongahan but the young blood has now been integrated into the side and the ageing stars looks to have been replaced. No side other than Tyrone or Armagh has won Ulster since 1988 despite it being the hardest province but I can see the orchard men winning this the hard way. Losing to Down would not be the end of the world especially if they get a soft back down opener and gain momentum from there. This side are completely under the radar hence the price. They look ready to finally put down a challenge in the post Joe Kernan era.

Others to mention: Kildare are still on the improvement and can reach another 1/4 final and perhaps win Leinster while Monaghan will look to win Ulster for the first time since 1988 but it looks like a year to rebuild this season.


Verdict: Cork 5/2 v Dublin final with Cork to win again
Dublin v Cork Final special with Mulhollands 11/2

Munster: Cork 4/5
Leinster: Kildare 5/1
Connacht: Galway 15/8
Ulster: Armagh 8/1

7th Heaven or Easter Hell

We're experiencing unseasonably hot weather for this time of year. Running around in this weather has me sweating like Neil Lennon's postman. And boy is the heat up in the streets of Glasgow. The vile threats on Lennon's life is one thing but a premeditated making of a bomb is incomprehensible and Sundays 7th and final Old Firm meeting of the season could be the most memorable game of the season but for all the wrong reasons.

Chief of Police in Glasgow likened it to the perfect storm. Tensions were already high but with hot weather, a bank holiday and the title at stake, are we hoping against hope that Glasgow stays safe this weekend. I certainly wouldn't bet on it and it's a shame in these supposed peaceful times there are morons that will not shake 400 years of dumb sectarian divide. It may add to the rivalry but it shouldn't be carried onto the streets and do people like Rod Stewart and Billy Connolly now need a security man to check their post because they are Celtic fans.


The title may be at stake but the only result that would really end it is a Celtic victory. A Rangers win or a draw and the title is still very much alive as neither side will go the rest of the season undefeated. They have both looked ordinary in the last few games especially against St Mirren.

Luckily for Rangers and the city of Glasgow as a whole, I cannot see a Celtic victory. Rangers were taken apart playing four across the back and while employ the sweeper and hit Celtic on the counter with Jelavic finally filling the void left empty by Miller. I can Celtic getting caught early in the match to the Croat and he is an excellent bet for First goalscorer at 9/2 or 5/4 Vanytime.

Will Rangers hold out for the win? They'll need a few decisions to go their way and I could never rule that but actually we need to always look for an angle and for me, my angle is the SFA want a draw, Glasgow wants a draw, the police want a draw and Celtic and Rangers would be both reasonably happy with a draw in the circumstances.


Verdict
Back
1. Pt Nikica Jelavic first goalscorer at 9/2
4. Pts Draw at 9/4
1. Pt Scorecast Nikica Jelavic & 1-1 draw at 28/1

Have BBC OverSepped the mark? England's bid for 2018

The winning host will be announced to the world on the 2nd of December. Just when the FA needed everybody to play ball, BBC Panorama will air another potential sting on the corruption of FIFA. The Sunday Times has led the way with their earlier sting which has resulted in the sacking of two officials but some FIFA delegates such as Asia’s Mohamed Bin Hammam have openly criticized their tactics" How dare they catch us out on our brown envelope expenses" he may have said

On top of this we have seen Lord Triseman land out on his backside for claiming the Spanish and Russians were in cahoots, we have seen Russia claim England is full of drunk knife yielding yobs(hello kettle), Spain/Portugal apparently were cozying up to Qatar for favours and its suddenly these guys make you wonder are we too harsh on the Irish Government.

The only bid not tarnished is Belgium/Holland but their odds are 50/1. The problem here is that they don’t have government backing or enough big stadia..

England is now 13/8. The positives being its ready made. They could host the thing tomorrow without any need to improve stadia or infrastructure. After the World Cups of South Africa and Brazil (how bad could that turn out?) it would be wise for FIFA to go for the safe option, have a giant well run World Cup comparable to Germany 2006.

One of the main drawbacks for England is in truth down to 2006. They went for that World Cup after stabbing Germany in the back reneging on a Gentleman’s agreement that Germany would support England for Euro 1996 in return for support in 2006. England ended up unsuccessful and short of allies after that one. Silly English, there's a reason you haven't hosted the World Cup since 1966. Ireland likes you though, please give us €7 billion.

Where will the votes come from? 22 votes decide and at present 7 seem destined for Spain/Portugal, the 3 African votes look to be going east to Russia and Sepp supporters will likely vote Russia.

This is how vote could breakdown after round one with Holland/Belgium eliminated if Engalnd win all those members they need to win. Of course the vote is secret and I am merely offering an opinion but at best I can see Spain/Portugal with 8, England with 8 and Russia with 6. This would mean Russia (the Even money favourite) would be eliminated in round 2. The problem I see is England are unlikely to win all 8 and even if they did, natural anti English bias after the scandals would push the members left to vote for whoever was left. I simply cannot see England winning the bid.

Name Nationality President Joseph S. Blatter Switzerland (Russia)

Senior Vice-President Julio Grondona Argentina (Spain/Portugal)

Vice-Presidents

Issa Hayatou Cameroon (Russia)

Chung Mong Joon South Korea(England)

Jack Warner Trinidad and Tobago (England)

Ángel María Villar Spain (Spain?portugal)

Michel Platini France (Spain/Portugal)

Geoff Thompson England(England)

Members Michel D'Hooghe Belgium (England)

Ricardo Terra Teixeira Brazil (Spain)

Mohammed Bin Hammam Qatar (Spain)

Senes Erzik Turkey (Russia)

Chuck Blazer United States of America(England)

Nicolas Leoz Paraguay (Spain)

Worawi Makudi Thailand(England)

Junji Ogura Japan(England)

Marios Lefkaritis Cyprus(England)

Jacques Anouma Ivory Coast (Russia)

Franz Beckenbauer Germany (Spain)

Rafael Salguero Guatemala (Spain)

Hany Abo Rida Egypt (Russia)

Vitaly Mutko Russia((Russia)

So who will win between Russia and Spain/Portugal?

Russia is just another Sepp Blatter dream. Spread the football to the new market to maximize revenue. The problem is 13 out 16 Stadiums would need to be built or massively refurbished. It would be the largest land mass ever for a World Cup and even with high speed rail(that only links 6 cities) air travel would be necessary between stadiums. They have talked about pockets for certain groups and the funding appears to be there. But what is also there is Racism. Russia football would make English football from the 80’s wince. Banana chants and boos of Black players is widespread and while Russia would promise to sort it out before the World Cup starts that coupled along with the public spats with England and vastness of the country may make it a gamble not worth taking.

Spain/Portugal also has the Stadiums like England. It has the transport and it has the climate and right TV zone. It has everything England boasts except they haven’t made any enemies. Spain last hosted the World Cup in 1982 and Portugal recently hosted Euro 2004 but they are the right bid and only co hosting is the big drawback along with perhaps Ireland causing their economies to collapse and bringing down the whole of the EU. They were 7/1 a few weeks ago and are now 3/1. Follow the money as they are no way the outsiders of 3. 7 votes look in the bag out of 22 look on the cards and once it becomes a choice between them and either |Russia or England, expect the neutral to favour the Iberians

Betting

Russia EVS

England 13/8

Spain/Portugal 3/1

Holland/Belgium 50/1

Tote Ten To Follow Guide

Entering through John Mulhollan's is a must for the Tote ten To Follow as it gets you entry into the official competition as well as the John Mulholland side pool so two sets of prizes for the same price.

There that's my attempt at marketing, now onto how to win the bloody thing.

Many syndicates will invest larges sums of money but don't let that detract from the single entrant. Last season Johnny Leonard won the John Mulholland version with a single entry and collected a cool €3,ooo for his selections. I spoke to him about how he sets about winning it and we agreed on a few things and argued on a few others. First things first. The Bonus races


Winning the big bonus races will propel you out above pack. Johnny had Big Zeb, Big Bucks and Binocular last season and went up the leaderboard with Usain Bolt type speed. He looks most carefully at the Paddy Power, King George, the Irish champion hurdle and 6 Cheltenham races as the rest are too hard to guage this far out.

Paddy Power Gold Cup	(Cheltenham 13 November)
Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup	(Newbury 27 November)
William Hill King George VI Chase	(Kempton Park 26 December)
Irish Champion Hurdle	(Leopardstown 23 January)
Irish Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup	(Leopardstown 6 February)
Totesport Trophy	(Newbury 12 February)
Racing Post Chase	(Kempton Park 26 February)
Champion Hurdle	(Cheltenham 15 March)
Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy	(Cheltenham 15 March)
All Seasons Queen Mother Champion Chase	(Cheltenham 16 March)
Royal & SunAlliance Chase	(Cheltenham 16 March)
Ladbroke World Hurdle	(Cheltenham 17 March)
Ryanair Festival Trophy Chase	(Cheltenham 17 March)
Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup	(Cheltenham 18 March)
John Smith’s Grand National	(Aintree 9 April)

The winner of the big races is of course imperative and some horses will be on everybody's list but for good measure. There is no point ignoring all the big horses as you think others will have them. Look to have 5-6 big horses and your own selections, try to get the balance right. Leaving out Kauto Star over the years would have been folly as the King George was a bonus race and no point throwing away a minimum of 25 points. Whether you believe Kauto is now over the hill and worth leaving out is another matter.

My stone wall one this season has to be Imperial Commander, he will win the Betfair Chase and will finish in the first two in the Gold Cup injury permitting. I believe he can't be left out but it's a game of opinions. Johnny agrees and we both believe Binocluar and especially Big Bucks must also be on the list.

Binocular was in nearly everybody's list ad proved a serious disappointment until the champion hurdle. He will be better this season and can defend his title.


Big Bucks is another that just cannot be left out unless you know the rest of the racing world doesn't as he has the staying hurdles division to himself and nothing can get near him.

The 2 mile chase division is harder to guage but Big Zeb will win Irish prizes as well as going close again in the Champion Chase. Doubtful we'll see him in the Tingle Creek as he'll likely stay at left handed tracks. Master Minded would do well to come back and Sizing Europe doesn't have a Azertyuiop/Moscow Flyer profile. perhaps a French breed horse not even on the list will emerge this season.

The Paddy Power Gold Cup is the first bonus race and Long Run is a short price favourite. He will be in loads of people's lists and with good reason as this is his trip and although high in the weights, his Jockey(Sam Waley Chohen) will be able to claim and should make amends for a poor RSA. We both agreed he is worth sticking in

The Hennessy could have Denman and Kauto Star both in the race and heavens knows what the rest of the field will be receiving in weight. Denman was fantastic defying top weight twice in this race and it would be a monumental effort to do so for a 3rd time but a horse who could get into the race proper and cause him trouble is Burton Point and even if he doesn't win, he'll collect plenty of prize money through the season. He's my dark horse for the season.

Sanctuaire could be a top hurdler to follow and should win the Greatwood on the first Sunday of the season. Check out the Morigana hurdlers from Ireland, may may wish to include either Hurricane Fly or Solwhit as well. Johnny had Solwhit last season but is leaning towards Hurricane Fly this season. Its important to have an Irish hurdler to mop up prizes this side of the Irish Sea and of course the Irish Champion Stakes. Johnny doesn't rate Sanctuaire but I believe he could be the new Celestial Halo and wouldn't be surprised to see Nicholls take him over for the big race.

When selecting your 10( we add two bonus ones in late February for the Cheltenham festival) We must look to strike a balance between Chasers and Hurdlers. 5+5 or worse 4+6 either way. Johnny Leonard argued it should be closer to 7 chasers versus 3 hurdlers as the chasers have more prizes to win.

Here are my 10 for the season. Good Luck and enjoy the season ahead.


IMPERIAL COMMANDER- CHASER
BURTON POINT-CHASER
BINOCULAR-HURDLER
LONG RUN-CHASER
SANCTUAIRE-HURDLER
BIG BUCKS-HURLDER
JESSIES DREAM-CHASER
KHYBER KIM-HURDLER
BIG ZEB-CHASER
GREAT ENDEAVOR-CHASER

Breeders Cup 2010-Kentucky is back to the dirt

When most think of Kentucky, they see a Colonel and a secret spices chicken. They see Zinger burgers, Twisty wraps and family buckets. I'm hungry just thinking about it. KFC is one of those things that look better than they actually are. Once presented with it in bucketform, it never quite lives up to expectations. Will this week's Breeders Cup be likewise?

For the last two seasons, Europe has enjoyed more success than ever before off the turf on the artificial pro ride surface. Kentucky is back to the dirt and it seems Europe has resigned itself with mopping up the turf races. Many Americans will be happy, they are back to their traditional surface. Racing on pro ride would be akin to us running the Arc on Pro Ride but then again, it's a fair surface and I think it should be embraced world wide or at least tapeta shout

Enough chat, give me winners

Ok looking at the races, our two big winners would appear to be Workforce in the Turf & Goldikova in the Mile and I expect one of those at least to get beat from a bookies point of view and will be encouraging Mulholland's to go biggest on the double. Why? Workforce has complained about the trip over, well not the horse per se, more Michael Stoute and and more grips about the ground will have instilled market weakness. Stoute though is prone to putting punters away and even said Workforce was doubtful in the Arc. Winning the Derby, Arc and Breeders Cup Turf in one season would normally automatically confirm him a wonder horse but their seems to be huge apathy out there for Workforce after superstar Sea the Stars last season. No arc winner has ever won a breeders Cup event but the problem is who can beat him? Behkabad has shown his limitations beaten 4th in a messy Arc but I was seriously underwhelmed by his trial run as well. Dangerous Midge and Al Khali look nothing special while Debussy and Winchester could both prove the dangers. I'd expect Debussy to win as he clearly enjoys the other side of the Atlantic as he has shown winning the Arlington Million and has the right draw.


Goldikova has beaten all that has been put in front of her and really has nothing left to prove. She won by the minimum margin last season in this race but won nevertheless. Paco Boy won't Richard Hughes in the saddle but their is a home horse been completely overlooked this side of the pond. Sidney Candy, at 10/1 is an each way steal and judging by his running action and style, the draw can be overcome.




Of the other races, I can't see past Midday and make her the bet of the meeting in the 10:50 Friday( Filly & Mares Turf). She has been exceptional this season and while some may say she's had an easy few races with Sariska parking her bum in the stalls, she is a previous winner and it's her ideal trip and ground should be no problem.

A few foreign raiders will look to capture the Juvenile Fillies Turf race(8:50 Friday) but nothing jumps off the page. Together has had plenty of runs already and her second to White Moonstone would read best but the ground is a big worry. I'd give it a miss altogether.

I'm shocked the Europeans have not targeted the Breeders Cup Sprint Turf and perhaps am surprised further that California Flag is such a big price. He was sent off favourite earlier in the year in Meydan coming 3rd but has shown flashes of super stardom and worth a nibble at a big price.

Precision Break if it handles the dirt would have a smashing chance in the Marathon and again worth a go at the minimum bet.

In the big race, I cannot get away from Zenyatta. She was awesome last season and yes I know she's all about Californian pro ride type surfaces but this is a poor renewal with only one superstar present at over 9/4. Don't think, just back and back early as the price will tumble. 19 out of 19 wins makes her an all time great and those who doubt her ability to win on the dirt should note that her widest margin wins have been on this surface. Last season her last to first was epic but she'll need to race handier than that on this surface but what can beat her?


Zenyatta on Dirt


Zenyatta last seasons epic win- Arguably one of the greatest performance ever



Bets for Breeders Cup:
5pts: Midday 10:50 Friday Filly & Mares Turf
3Pts; Zenyatta 10:45 Saturday Classic
2pts; Sidney s Candy 8:40 Saturday Mile
1pt: Debussy 10:00 SaturdayTurf
1 pt: California Flag 7:15 Saturday Turf Sprint


Not only do we have Zenyatta, Midday and Workforce to whet our appetite, we have the jockey battle between Paul Hanagan and Richard Hughes and the seasonal bow of Kauto Star. Check out Mulholland's crazy Kauto Star cashback offer:

If you don’t want to know who will win the X factor, look away now!

This year has had abundance of Drama and we haven’t even started yet. Saturday’s first live show promises a great big twist. What will it be? Will it be a wildcard selection, the mentors change category or will they add a new category so we have the Over 28s, the Groups, the boys, the girls and the overstayed their visa’s category? All will be revealed and Emperor Simon Cowell’s wallet can be assured the whole of Britain and Ireland will be sitting glued to the world’s newest gladiator colosseum where instead of blood and guts the only murdering we see is some girl from Grimsby attempt at latest Lady Gaga song.

There has been plenty of hullabaloo this week regarding Gamu Nhengu exclusion from the live show, with plenty of idiots even ringing in ofcom to complain and state that Cheryl Cole is racist. What nonsense, it’s not like Gamu was a toilet attendant or anything. The money went crazy for her to win even though she wasn’t in the live shows earlier in the week but now it looks unlikely as the X factor producers do a better job of patrolling the nations borders than immigration control.

The Contestants

Matt Cardle is the biggest dud favourite since Goliath. He is simply too short in the betting;on account that he’s softly spoken and the bettors think he’ll be a hit with the Grannies. What will happen is his little gay "close his eyes and bring his hands to his face routine" will grate quite quickly, and he can’t wear that hat forever, he’s nothing without his hat.

1 direction are second in the betting and while it could be assumed that direction would be straight down back to obscurity, it should be noted that these guys are already getting a big tween fan base on account of their boyish good looks and have an unusual trait in a boyband in that they can all sing. Cowell will be keen to stick all his resources into making this a first victory for the groups.

Rebecca Ferguson has a serious voice and just like Leona Lewis, plays the softly shy tame thing off the stage. That annoyed the hell out of me with Leona but it didn’t do her chances any harm and if Stacey last season had kept quiet, then no doubt she’d have won. Live contender

Our Mary Byrne is taking up where Jedward left off and at 25/1 may not be a bad bet for a run. She’ll trade shorter than that but it’s doubtful she’ll hang for Gold. We may be denied the right to vote, but thanks to our economy, plenty of our brethren have to seek wage in Britain again so there is a growing Irish Diaspora once again. Also rumours of a Tesco mounted campaign could add weight (no pun intended) to her cause. She is reported to be struggling with a virus so she’ll have to overcome that on the sympathy vote this week.

Of the others, Cher Lloyd blew me away in her first audition but she’ll need to show a little variety and at present looks like a one trick pony.

Katie Waissel looks like a young Madonna but sings like Maradonna. Her apparent beau, Storm Lee is top class, oh he’ll annoy everyone and there’s a certain karaoke factor about him but he’ll add plenty of cheese to your Saturday night diet. John Adeleye has talent and he could emerge as the dark horse in the race but could just as easily be gone in the first 3 weeks. Aidan Grimshaw is one of those constipated singers you just hate to watch but can really sing while Nicolo Festa is surely a joke entrant stuck in to throw a few dramas and bump up the Italian audience.

FYD and Belle Amie are the final acts and of the two FYD are simply better than 25/1 chances, that’s value on a serious well polished group and lets not forget they are the only group who were together before the auditions. They could come in under the radar and don’t forget with all the different themes, it’s going to be hard for the other two groups to gel week in week out. These guys have the work ethic of JLS, arguably the most successful act in the last few seasons and really should of won only for Alexandra Burke to pull Beyonce out of the hat.

It should be noted in the youtube clips the only acts registering big views is Cher, Gamu, Katie and Mary. I can’t see the public going with their darling Cheryl to win 3 in a row and that will come against the Girls so I’m going to go for a complete outside and pluck FYD at 25/1 to win

Verdict: FYD to win at 25/1

Prices to win X Factor

Cardle, Matt 3/1
1 Direction 7/2
Ferguson, Rebecca 4/1
Lloyd, Cher 7/1
Grimshaw, Aiden 9/1
Belle Amie 16/1
Adeleye, John 16/1
Waissel, Katie 20/1
Festa, Nicolo 20/1
Lee, Storm 25/1
FYD 25/1
Byrne, Mary 35/1

To be first eliminated

Waissel, Katie 7/2
FYD FYD 4/1
Adeleye, John 6/1
Lee, Storm 6/1
Belle Amie 13/2
Festa, Nicolo 8/1
Byrne, Mary 10/1
Lloyd, Cher 12/1
Grimshaw, Aiden 20/1
1 Direction 33/1
Ferguson, Rebecca 40/1
Cardle, Matt 50/1

Prices supplied by Betpack.com

Heineken Cup- What of the Irish no hopers?

Once again, the big two teams in Ireland start their Heineken cup campaign on the back of an inter province derby encounter. It backfired spectacularly last season with Leinster going down at home to London Irish while Munster looked sluggish and losing 31-27 away to Northampton Saints.

Munster this time faces London Irish away while Leinster has a home encounter v Racing Metro. Will lightening strike twice and we'll see another two Irish defeats. It doesn't really matter with regards outright prospects as I'm going to draw a line through both teams right now. Munster needs to bite the bullet and blood some youth into their aging forwards, as they are going backwards! Buckley and Du preez finally getting game time is a good thing but a season of transition looks on the cards.

I know writing off Munster is akin to writing off England at the World Cup( Rugby World cup that is, I always write them off for football's equivalent without a sniff of worry) but they just do not look like a side capable of winning those big matches in other people's back yard anymore. They may get luckier than last season when the ERC saw fit to award France with two semi finals and a final but even so, Munster have gone to the well once too often. A win first out at London Irish and Munster fans will be scoffing at my prediction.

Leinster too has looked a shambles so far and Joe Schmidt needs more time to turn this team around. Last weeks derby win only papers over the cracks. They have a horrid group alongside Clermont and Saracens and they hope must be that last season's Top 14 side only care about their domestic title. Even Racing Metro are one of these new breeds of super rich French clubs throwing money at players(currently top of top 14) and the likelihood is Leinster will need to top the group to progress into 1/4 finals. They must also watch out for Francois Steyn doing this.

Ulster have looked an improved side this season and the addition of Ruan Pienaar has the men up north excited they'll get into the last eight for the first time since their 1999 win. They beat Bath home and away last season and Bath again have question marks over Lewis Moody (eye injury) and Butch James is out. Biarritz last season’s runners have Imanol Harinordoquy, Dimitri Yachvili and Damien Traille as the heartbeat of this team and put them as clear favourites to emerge on top of this group and as the dark horse to win the whole thing.


Who can win?

French Clubs

They just look so strong now. The Top -14 is like the English Premier League at present buying up all the top foreign talent and off course the French national side is not too shabby at present. The danger of course is how serious each team takes it compared to the Top 14. Clermont are repeat offenders but after winning last season's domestic title, they may be more inclined to treat this competition with the respect it deserves. Toulouse and Biarritz are the top two for taking this seriously and Biarritz will be keen to get going especially after an indifferent start to their league campaign. Racing and Toulon are the new boys but I can’t help feeling their eyes are on domestic first and foremost so I will overlook them. Don’t be surprised if at least 4 of the ¼ finalist is a French side.

English Clubs

London Irish has started best and would fancy their chances if they didn’t get landed in such a hot group. Bath are the 2^nd shortest priced English team and frankly that beggars belief. Saracens too will struggle in their group unless the French play to stereotype. Leicester are in their usual place in the market but again don’t inspire me this season while Northampton can do well at home but can they win on the road? Wasps need to turn around their domestic form but a weak looking group alongside Toulouse may see them qualify as best runners up and from there anything is possible for a side that talented.

Welsh Clubs

The final this season is in the Millenium Stadium and while that normally means Munster win or minimum make the final, Ospreys and Cardiff can both take heart from winning silverware last season and finally win one for Wales. Ospreys have finally acquired the habit of winning close encounters and I expect they’ll top their group with Munster, Toulon and London Irish. Cardiff too have a very winnable group alongside Castes, Northampton and Edinburgh and the addition of Dan Parks this season could see them win those tight encounters.

Scottish Clubs

I was a big fan of the Scottish clubs as they seemed to be on the ascendancy. Glasgow especially have incredible talent and are hard to beat at Ravenhill but injuries and the loss of Dan Parks are hurting and they’ll have to treat Wasps as two winning cup final matches to make a ¼ final berth. Edinbrugh will beat one or two at home but that is all I can see.

Verdict:

Ireland nor England will produce the winning side, It is between the Welsh and French. Picking either is difficult as it’ impossible to mind read the French commitment. Biarritz’s poor start to the season makes me believe they’ll go all guns blazing to finally win this big one. Ospreys have the game finally to get it done and with Tommy Bowe ripping the heart of teams and Dan Biggar starting to resemble a highly reliable number 10 but I am probably being greedy and saying I’ll give it a swerve at such a short price and just back them to top the group of death.

Biarritz 12/1 to win

Ospreys to top pool 3 at 15/8

Outright Betting
7/2 Toulouse
7/1 Leicester Tigers
10/1 Clermont Auvergne
11/1 Ospreys
12/1 Munster
12/1 Biarritz
12/1 Cardiff Blues
14/1 Northampton Saints
14/1 Bath
16/1 Leinster
16/1 Perpignan
25/1 Londonb Wasps
25/1 Toulon
33/1 Racing Metro 92
40/1 Saracens
66/1 London Irish
66/1 Ulster
80/1 Castres
200/1 Glasgow Warriors
200/1 Edinburgh
200/1 Llanelli Scarlets
200/1 N G Dragons
2000/1 Aironi
2000/1 Treviso

Top Try Scorer

16/1 Chris Ashton
16/1 Vincent Clerc
20/1 Tommy Bowe
20/1 Tom Varndell
20/1 Napolioni Nalaga
20/1 Takudzwa Ngwenya
25/1 Leigh Halfpenny
25/1 Maxime Medard
25/1 Julien Malzieu
25/1 Shane Williams
25/1 Matt Banahan
25/1 Scott Hamilton
33/1 Tom James
33/1 Doug Howlett
33/1 Brian ODriscoll
33/1 Ollie Phillips
33/1 Alesana Tuilagi
33/1 Paul Sackey
33/1 Rudi Wulf
33/1 David Strettle
33/1 Sailosi Tagicakibau

Pool 1 Betting
6/5 Cardiff Blues
5/4 Northampton Saints
6/1 Castres
16/1 Edinburgh

Pool 2 Betting
7/4 Clermont Auvergne
15/8 Leinster
7/2 Saracens
5/1 Racing Metro 92

Pool 3 Betting
3/2 Munster
17/10 Ospreys
10/3 Toulon
9/1 London Irish

Pool 4 Betting
Evs Biarritz
11/10 Bath
7/1 Ulster
500/1 Aironi

Pool 5 Betting
4/9 Leicester Tigers
15/8 Perpignan
18/1 Llanelli Scarlets
300/1 Treviso

Pool 6 Betting
1/5 Toulouse
4/1 Wasps
28/1 Glasgow Warriors
33/1 N G Dragons